A new world order

Newsweek International's Robert Samuelson has an interesting article online. He proposes that the US is losing its hold on the global economy, differentiating power from leadership. The article situates the present American economy with those of other first world nations and provides support for the long-time standing of the US as an economic power. However, as Samuelson writes:

[L]eadership is the ability to set and achieve goals, either byimposing your will or by getting others to follow. Time was when the United States could do this easily....Times have changed. In its general foreign policy, the Bush administration may seem unilateralist. But on economic matters it has suffered a loss of influence that, frankly, continues a trend. Ironically, it stems partly from the success of American ideas.

Interesting point. How exactly? Samuelson enumerates the following factors:

1. Globalization By introducing and embracing the concept, Samuelson posits that the US allowed its leadership to be challenged by new and emerging economic centers, all competing for a share in global trade and commerce. The result is a fragmentation of influence, leading to erosion and possible loss of leadership standing.




• US current-account deficits These have been increasing "explosively," according to Samuelson's sources, and could very well lead to a "crisis in confidence" in the US dollar, locally and globally.


• Imports v. exports The US economy is seen to be growing faster than those of Europe and Japan. As a result, the US is now importing more than what it is exporting.


• Global trade negotiations These have weakened the US' position in calling the shots in global trade. In fact, due to the emergence of new economic centers, the US has been compelled to give in to more and more trade concessions. And the Bush administration's foreign policy, especially its decisions on the Iraq war, has not helped one bit. In fact, Samuelson goes on to say that it has worsened the situation.




2. Disappearance of poitical supports Traditionally, the following have made it possible for the US to lead global trade:




1. The Cold War Trade and defense went hand in hand to defeat communism. It was a unified effort to put up a showcase of the advantages of democracy and capitalism. The US position was strengthened by allies who turned to the US only because the alternative was so much more despicable. A classic case of choosing the lesser evil.


2. US & international economic organizations Although the US still dominates the IMF, the World Bank and the WTO, UN figures for 2003 show that direct private investments in developing countries have outpaced those of international economic organizations by almost 9 to 1, in billions of dollars. There is, therefore, less infuence through these organizations.


3. Public opinion Americans are now more concerned with job security as a result of globalization. More and more American companies are into "offshoring." Apparently, this index is so high that the US Congress has refused to grant the Presidency broader overseas trade-negotiating powers.




3. China Asian countries have refused to revalue their currencies. There is neither an apparent nor urgent need to do so, given the globalization of trade. Also, there is a perceived threat from cheap Chinese imports. With the lower cost of labor in Asia, there is a worldwide trend for manufacturing companies to relocate their factories there, and the American corporate culture is not immune. Hence, the increased fear of "offshoring" and China.

The analysis is logical. So far. I don't agree with Samuelson's conclusion, though, that:

as much as American leadership has often been resent-ed (sic), it might be regretted if it's no longer there. The globalized economy is a work in progress, and if it disintegrates into a melee of unsupervised markets and contentious nations, people may recall nostalgically the days when they nosily complained about Washington's overbearing leadership.

I don't believe that the global economy as we have it now will disintegrate, or that there is a danger of disintegration, given the presence of the EU and the ASEAN. I strongly believe that these bodies will eventually, perhaps in the nearer future than we imagine, rise to supervise and regulate trade relations between and among regional economies.

As a consequence of the rise of China as the leading economic power, I believe that an Asian economy will be inevitable. Already, the ASEAN has gained significant footholds in ensuring that such regional cooperation will take place, not only in trade but in defense as well. It would be interesting to monitor this relationship between trade and defense among Asian nations. And should this arise, how would Australia position herself? There are strong indications that that country will align herself with Asia and not with the US. (See related Newsweek article. In fact, Alexander Downer is quoted, showing his characteristic un-Foreign-Ministerial self. Delicious!) So much for the Sheriff of Asia.

In all, Samuelson exhibits the arrogance of American culture. It simply refuses to recognize the inevitable demise of American leadership in the world. She has become the old world, while Europe and Asia have been quietly building the new.

Major life decision; tragedy

Carl called up Christmas eve. The signal was lousy. His call came through on the day after Christmas, though, but it was rather short as he was calling me on my landline. I suppose that costs more. In any case, we exchanged news.

He's finally moving out of his house into a rented one; has two agents for the place. The construction of the house in Queensland still has to be started but will probably start in the first quarter of next year. He still hasn't found a buyer for his construction business, though. But everything's moving as planned. As soon as he's sold the house, he's coming over for a visit. I hope it's soon as I miss him a lot.

I also made the decision, on the spot, to introduce him to my family the next time he's in town. Surprisingly, he welcomed the idea and seemed ready for it. In fact, I was relieved at his reaction. Come to think of it, I think he may have been trying to make me get to that point, perhaps as a benchmark of where this relationship is going.

There is now no doubt of that. It's finally a commitment. At least, on my part. I'll have to clear that up with him when I see him again. This is not something that can be fully discussed via email or on the fone.

End to 2004

The year ends with a tragic note. The successive typhoons hitting my country, causing devastation and death to countless homes, and millions of pesos in losses in agriculture and infrastructure; and the tsunami that hit five Asian countries, killing tens of thousands in its wake. The early evening news on tv set the number of accounted deaths at 15,000.

Analysts are not optimistic about the coming year, anticipating worsening global conflicts. Personally, I believe that 2005 will open doors of opportunities for me, both in my personal life and my career. I'm feeling optimistic about the local economy, and the present adminsitration's abilities to live up to the Filipino people's expectations. Already, it has shown political will in expropriating NAIA 3 on the strength of the Philippine Supreme Court's decision to nullify the Piatco contract for being grossly disadvantageous to public interest. For the first time in many years since EDSA 1, the judiciary is getting its act together and aligning itself with the executive in protecting the interest of the Filipino people.

It is encouraging to see the presidency throwing off the chains of bondage to private corporate interests, and exercising strong leadership of an elected national official, the highest in the land, no less. If there ever was a prayer in my heart, it is that this strong political will continues and grows, and that it inspires the Filipino to nationhood and greatness.

The devil in Iraq

This quote from 'Who the Devil Really Was' by Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria

The current issue of Foreign Affairs has an exchange between two scholars, Tony Smith and Larry Diamond. Smith accuses Diamond, a longtime supporter of human rights, of making a "pact with the devil" by working (briefly) for the United States in postwar Iraq. Diamond, who had opposed the war, responds: "I do not regard the post-war endeavor as a pact with the devil. Let Smith and other critics visit Iraq and talk to Iraqis who are organizing for democracy, development, and human rights. Let them talk to the families that lived under constant, humiliating, Baathist rule. Let them see some of the roughly 300 mass graves of opponents of the regime who were brutally slaughtered in the hundreds of thousands. Then they will find out who the devil really was." I can't say it better.

Neither can I.

I love him...

Did I say it wasn't going to be Carl? I lied. I love the guy. He's just too easy to be with; no hassles, no airs, no complications. And yet, he has his principles and he's pretty respectable. This is the guy I can live with for the rest of my life. I feel safe with him, secure and well-provided for. He's the guy who's going to let me have a career of my own; he's the guy who's going to be secure enough in himself and our relationship to stand at the sidelines and let me do my thing. And when I want a bit more sexual excitement in my life, he's the guy to go out and get someone to spice up our sex life.

So what was I thinking? This is the guy. I can't wait for the adventure to begin.

Cosmetics

What's in my cosmetics bag:

1. Nu Skin liquid foundation with moisturizer in shade of Honey (P1,200)


2. Avon Pure White Ultra Pressed Powder in shade of Almond (P300)


3. in2it Facial Highlighters FH 01 Shimmering Pearls (P180)


4. in2it Long Wearing Twin Blush BT 05 Fantasy (P180)


5. The Body Shop Quad Eyeshadow (the purple-pink-brown-silver set) (P995)


6. Avon shimmering eye pencil in shade of lavender blue (P200)


7. The Body Shop Lip Tint (P300)


8. Ever Bilena Original Germany Eyeliner Soft Brown (P65)


9. A blending brush


10. A thin brush


11. A big soft round all around brush

My sure-fire cleansing regimen: L'Oreal Pure Zone Continuous Purity set of foaming facial wash with micro-beads and salicylic acid; toner with salicylic acid; and oil-free anti-regreasing moisturizer. The entire set cost P700 but it's worth every penny. It's a product line that really works and, most importantly, doesn't cost thousands of pesos.

My officemate and I started on the regimen almost at the same time and we have both noticed dramatic results. We both have oily skin and large pores. My skin doesn't oil that much anymore, even if it's the week before or during my period. After two months of using the product line, our pores are visibly reduced. My friend's skin tone has lightened and now has that healthy, clean shine on it. What she experienced was that, as the dead cells were continuously removed after a week, pimples appeared which disappeared after another week.

It feels so good to put on make-up these days, as it doesn't appear oily on my face. As I just use pressed powder on my face and don't use the foundation often, this is a good thing. The real secret to make-up is good, healthy, clean skin. If you have this, make-up doesn't have to be expensive. I do, however, stay away from really cheap brands.

I suppose the only thing lacking in our regimen is daily exercise for a more significant result. Oh, well.

I've been trying to get out on my bike in the mornings but the weather keeps spoiling the fun. This morning, I finally got to go but I think I overdid it as I felt light-headed when I got home. I had to lie down for a while. I suppose my blood pressure dropped.

Let's try again on Wednesday.

Admission

I finally admitted it -- to myself and to Cliff: I am looking for something more.

I don't think Carl is going to be it. He's just too far away and going into retirement. Tom and Dale are never going to be it, either, as both are just too selfish to hang it all on the line for me. Cliff isn't going to be it, either, as he loves his wife and his family too much to be a scum. And I won't allow him.

Just like Marge, I'm tired of all these games.

This is the portion of the conversation I had with Cliff yesterday. It bothered me a lot because I didn't want to complicate matters for him.

Cliff (11:43:00 AM): I know, I know. But....
Cliff (11:43:24 AM): I need to tell you that....
Cliff (11:43:26 AM): hmmm....

Me (11:43:29 AM): yes...?

Cliff (11:43:59 AM): Here is what I am trying to say: You must have been putting out the right kind of energy, because we have a great bond. And,
Cliff (11:44:40 AM): if we were not half a world away and I were unattached, that bond could become more than a friendship. You know that, don't you?

Me (11:45:16 AM): i dont know what to say.....
Me (11:45:28 AM): i think so yes

Cliff (11:45:30 AM): Say what you feel.

Me (11:45:43 AM): i dont now what to say

Cliff (11:45:49 AM): ok. So my point is. If you did it once, you can do it again.

Me (11:46:15 AM): ok...i get it....
Me (11:46:22 AM): yes, thank you

I don't know why these things have to be so complicated.